Can the Lib Dems fill the gap in the centre?

The Liberal Democrats held their party conference in Bournemouth, and Vince Cable sought to make a good impression at his first conference as leader. The Liberals have been in the wilderness since the coalition ended, and now are looking to re-establish themselves in politics. The Liberals are trying to claim the centre-ground which has, all agree, been abandoned by Labour which has gone back to its socialist roots, and the Conservatives who are now fundamentalist Brexiteers. The question is whether there is any appetite for centrism at the moment.

Vince Cable has an extremely difficult job. He has to recover the Liberals from near-rock bottom, with just 7.4% of the vote and only 12 seats. There are still massive questions about the trustworthiness of the Liberals after the wildly unpopular coalition with the Tories, and the broken promises on tuition fees. Cable offers a ‘third way’ in British politics. He proposes a pro-market but socially liberal party, based on the electoral success of Emmanuel Macron. While it may be bluster and hyperbole for Cable to suggest that the Liberals will be the ‘government of the future’ any time soon, it shows how a nobody can rise to success. However, there is one key difference between the Liberals and En Marche. Macron came with very little baggage, and the circumstances provided a perfect storm for him to succeed: the Socialists were incredibly unpopular, and the left was forced to side with him because of the greater threat of putting Le Pen in office. No such favourable circumstances exist in Britain. The UK doesn’t currently provide a great opportunity for the Liberals. The policy of a second referendum is the one major turn-off for most of the electorate. Whilst this policy may appeal to the 27% of Britons who want to overturn the referendum result, the people who back this policy tend to be firmly in Corbyn’s camp, and haven’t forgiven the Liberals for the coalition.

It’s often said that insanity is repeating the same experiment over and over and expecting different results. Since the Liberals utterly failed with regards to trying the second referendum tactic in 2017, they’d be wise to take heed of Einstein’s maxim and drop it. It comes across as anti-democratic and alienates 51% of the population. Cable saying that he’s a “proud saboteur” may wreck his chances at a #libdemfightback. However there may be benefits to this policy. If there is a huge economic downturn as a result of leaving the EU, voters may well decide that the Lib Dems aren’t offering a bad option at all, and so might support the party. However this is a long term bet and if the next election is before when the downturn hits, it won’t pay off for the Liberals. If the Liberals drop the second referendum, I think they will almost definitely do very well at the next election, no matter when that may be. However if they retain this policy, it depends on when the next election is, as if it is before the economic crash hits, it will be a massive vote loser for the Liberals. If the election is after an economic crash, well, the Liberals might stand to profit hugely electorally.

#Brexit