How Concerning are the results of the German Federal Election?

I wouldn’t say they’re as concerning as people think. The AfD have done much better than they usually do, but given Germany’s welcoming refugee policy I expected the fascist backlash to be worse.

Trump managed to capitalise on Hillary promising to increase Syrian refugees in the US to 65,000, whereas Merkel took in a million and the AfD only has 13% of the vote. Granted there were other factors leading to more populist support, like political correctness and pure racism, but given Merkel’s policy we should be grateful there wasn’t more of a racist backlash.

The AfD will never join a coalition with any of the other parties, as they’re too crazy for them. However, the threat of the AfD may cause Merkel to shift right on some issues. We’ve already seen her refuse to vote for gay marriage, and call for a ban on the burqa, ‘wherever legally possible’. They will not directly influence her but will have a heavy indirect effect.

The SPD have done poorly, but they’re in a position where they will be able to recover. They were the junior partner in the coalition and couldn’t expect to win after this. They’ve lost 5% of their vote, but the CDU (Merkel’s party) have lost 8.5%. This is the worst election for both of the two main parties in a long time. Interestingly the SPD lost most votes to the AfD, which is worrying as it suggests that the working class is embracing populism.

The Free Democrats have done well, and the fact that they have gained 10% of the vote is one of the key reasons why both the SPD and CDU lost support. They’re a promising party, and their economically conservative but socially liberal, pro-European ideology is another moderate voice in the German parliament. It will be interesting to see how they perform in coalition.

The main irritating thing is the rise in populism, with Die Linke (the far left party) and the AfD gaining vote share. The AfD is particularly concerning with its extremist stance on Muslims in Germany, and its Euroscepticism at a time when Europe needs to be more united in the face of a more assertive Russia and a United States that seems to care less about Europe than past administrations. The AfD however, remain isolated and therefore are a manageable problem for now.

In short, the German election is worrying in some respects, as the AfD are in the Bundestag and the two mainstream parties have suffered. However, it is better than had been expected by some, and a moderate coalition looks set to take power.

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