How to stop Brexit

Firstly recognise that article 50 is already triggered. So the default result of inaction at this point is Brexit. You can’t avoid Brexit by doing nothing. You have to actively undo it or it will happen even if everyone just goes on holiday for the next 18 months.

The best scenario to reverse it would be a new general election where the LibDems do well enough on an anti-Brexit stance that there’s a chance of a Labour / LibDem / SNP coalition.

The LibDems and SNP then tell Corbyn that reversing Brexit is the price of their coalition.

I think that suits Corbyn and Labour fine. They’re covered, they can tell their pro-Leave supporters that reversing Brexit is a price worth paying for the greater prize of government on Corbyn’s manifesto. Corbyn can demand what he wants in return, whether that’s definitely an end to university fees (can’t see that the Lib Dems are going to publicly go against that this time), a free vote on Trident renewal (SNP will be up for it), nationalizing Royal Mail. Whatever.

Interestingly enough, of course, failing a new general election that everyone says that nobody wants, another way to get there would be for all those passionate anti-Brexit Tories led by Anna Soubry to defect to the Lib Dems on an “EU membership is the most important issue of our time” ticket. As part of a grand plan to enter into a similar coalition with SNP / Labour.

That might actually give centrist Remainers more negotiating power. If they can say to Corbyn : “look, either we stay with Theresa May, holding up the creaking Tory party while you bluster away your ineffectively for the next five years. And we all get what we don’t want. Or we can defect to a pro-EU centrist social democratic alliance which is willing to form a coalition with you under these conditions : you get power to undo austerity and raise public sector wages and public spending, you get your new investment bank (we think EU membership will pay for that). But no nationalizations or crazy stuff”.

Of course, it’s a crazy plan, and a suicide squad mission for those Tories - they’ll be out at the 2022 election. But it just might work, and they might manage to save the UK’s EU membership.

Ball’s in your court, Anna.

#LabourParty #Conservativeparty #Brexit