The Political Future of Ulster

Ever since Brexit happened as a result of the 2016 EU Referendum there has been panic and concern in Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland like Scotland voted to remain whereas England and Wales voted to leave. There has been a lot of concern in Northern Ireland particularly about the border with the Republic of Ireland, people are worried that if a hard border is implemented with the Republic it will potentially result in violence akin to the type exhibited during the Troubles erupting again. Right now both the UK and the Republic of Ireland are in the EU, thus there is freedom of movement between our two countries.

The fact that Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU whilst most of the UK voted to leave has rejuvenated support for Northern Ireland’s independence and once again amongst the Irish nationalists, this has resulted in increased support for Irish nationalist parties e.g. Sinn Fein etc first in the elections to the Northern Irish Assembly and now the 2017 General Election. This is because of the same reason there has been a rise in independence support in Scotland again post-Brexit, a lot of people in Northern Ireland and Scotland feel that England is once again dictating to them and imposing their will on them which defeats the point of devolution. The results of the 2017 General Election now shows Sinn Fein winning 7 seats, a 3 seat gain. This shows an increase in support for independence by Irish nationalists who want Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland again. Simultaneously the Unionists in Northern Ireland have also got increased support as shown in the 2017 General Election with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) gaining 10 seats which is 2 seats more than what they got in the 2015 General Election. These results show that Northern Irish politics is increasingly focused again on Ulster unionism vs Irish nationalism. This pattern appears to be the same in Scotland although, in a shocking turn of events the SNP have suffered massive defeats in Scotland losing 19 seats to the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats (losing the vast majority to the Tories who are the most unionist of those parties).

The result of the 2017 General Election shows that despite Brexit the devolved nations have now expressed that independence is not really what they want. This appears to be more so in Scotland, possibly because they have already had an independence referendum in which they voted to remain. Nonetheless the DUP getting more seats than Sinn Fein shows that more Northern Irish people want Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK although, this is arguably due to sectarian divides based on ethnicity/religion whereas in Scotland the independence movement is not based on such factors. Arguably the DUP got more votes because there are slightly more protestants than Catholics in Northern Ireland.

In conclusion I would say that the 2017 General Election has shown that most of the people of the devolved nations do not want independence post-Brexit even if they were unhappy with the result. The losses of the SNP in Scotland has proven that their is no appetite for a 2nd Independence Referendum. Sturgeon has overplayed her hand, whilst trouble is brewing in Northern Ireland with voters moving to the more radical parties.

#2017GeneralElection