Is UKIP a spent force?

UKIP was instrumental in campaigning for Brexit even though, they weren’t really part of the leave campaign and were regularly cut out of televised debates. Since getting what they were mainly created for i.e. Brexit, UKIP’s influence has begun to diminish. UKIP were and are still a single-issue party. The only policy that truly unifies all UKIP members is Brexit due to Euro-scepticism.

After Brexit, UKIP’s popularity dwindled and this problem was exacerbated by the split and withdrawal of the neo-liberal faction within UKIP that adhered to more Classical/Gladstonian Liberal ideas. Ever since the withdrawal of the Neo-liberals such as Douglas Carswell and Arron Banks, UKIP has suffered. The loss of Farage however is a big one. The party may have been one issue but in many ways it was a one man party. Farage despite his questionable opinions was an extremely gifted politician. A good orator and personality he certainly was a vote winner. UKIP have been unable to find a similarly gifted politician. With Dianne James hasty resignation and Paul Nuttall's Pathological lieing it seems Farage is a difficult act to follow.

UKIP performed extremely badly during the Stoke-on-Trent by-election. Paul Nuttall was unable to win a seat in Stoke. They did not achieve their aspiration of trying to seize seats from the heavily pro-Brexit constituencies in the North of England who traditionally voted Labour as those areas are heavily deprived and filled with working-class people who have lost their jobs due to globalisation and de-industrialisation. UKIP were hoping to win the pro-Brexit seats as they knew that Labour’s policy on Brexit was ambiguous and that Brexiters in Labour constituencies would not appreciate this. They then narrowly survived a complete wipe out in the council elections. Gaining only 1 Councillor and losing 135 seats. Those voters unifying the right allowing the Tories to make big gains.

UKIP were right in thinking that the pro-Brexit working-classes would not vote for Labour however, what they were wrong in thinking is that they would vote for UKIP. In actuality they will be voting Conservative, why? This is because for one, the Conservatives are the ones that are handling the Brexit negotiations and the triggering of Article 50 and its handling. The working-classes will vote for the Tories because they want a hard Brexit, they want Brexit to be a success and they go after the nationalistic talk coming from the Far right of the Tory party. Furthermore, the Conservatives are much more likely to be elected than UKIP due to FPTP being biased to the bigger political parties.

In conclusion one could argue that UKIP is a victim of its own success. It appears now as though they will only remain a force to pressure the Conservatives into taking a hard Brexit stance. This effectively means UKIP as now more like a cause pressure group than a political party. The Conservatives fully embracing Brexit and moving drastically right, the Tories have re-collected these lost voters killing off UKIP's political support.